Predicting the occurence of dangerous scorpions based on analysis of environmental conditions

 

Scorpions are a medical problem in many countries and regions, but often the knowledge of which species are found were is limited. In a recent paper, Fouad Salhi and co-workers have presented a study from Morocco where they have tried to use ecological niche modelling to predict scorpion distribution based on the scorpions environmental requirements.

It seems that soil type is the strongest predictor of where many scorpions live, while temperature, including both average conditions and seasonal swings, seem to play a major role for some of the species studied in Morocco.

The model used is very promising and can be an important tools for government agencies working to prevent and reduce public health challenges related to scorpion stings. 

Abstract:
Ecological niche modelling (ENM) is a powerful analytical approach for predicting species distribution by elucidating their environmental requirements. The present study used the MaxEnt approach, integrating high-resolution environmental data and extensive in situ observations, to create habitat suitability maps for 19 scorpion species in central Morocco and assess the influence of environmental variables on their distribution. The models demonstrate excellent predictive ability, highlighted by area under the curve (AUC) values systematically greater than 0.9. Soil type emerged as the most influential environmental variable for 74% of species, while the remaining taxa were mainly affected by temperature annual range and annual mean temperature. Habitat suitability maps revealed distinct habitat preferences between species. H. gentili is a habitat generalist, showing a broad predicted distribution covering 62% of the study area, while A. bourdoni (0.14%), B. parroti (0.13%), O. innesi (0.62%) and B. atlantis (0.55%) showed a very restricted prediction of suitable habitats. This species-specific information on habitat conditions is essential not only to improve our understanding of their ecology, but also to formulate more effective public health strategies aimed at reducing the frequency of scorpion envenomings in Morocco.

Reference:
Salhi F, Elbahi A, Ouakri N, Lawton C, Abou Oualid J, Dugon MM. Ecological Niche Modelling and Distribution of Scorpion Fauna in Central Morocco: A MaxEnt Study. Environmental Research Communications. 2026;8:025008. [Open Access]